Turkish counter-offensive in Syria

Turkey keep the preasure in Syria and Iraq against the Kursish Forces, summed to the tge compounding troubles of the local population with Coronavirus. Turkish fight for decades with the considered insurgents of Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which established a very strategic position in borders of Iraq and Syria. 

Wednesdey, april 15th, Turkish Defense Ministry announced the neutralization of 18 members of the PKK fighters in Iraq's Qandil Mountains. The Iraqi Foreign Minister challenged this question, requesting at thursday, april 16rh, the Turkish ambassador after it was said that the Turkish army fighter plane violated the Iraqi airspace and bombed a refugee camp near Makhmur, killing two women. 

Both states run the Syrian Arab new agency pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, that the Turkish troops and allied Syrian rebels (anti-government) lauched rocket attacks near villages in Hasakah province, a region under control of the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed militia that Turkey considers a armed ramification of the PKK.

Recently, Turkey and Syria became rivals after Syria lauched an attack and killed some Turkish fighters. After that eposide, Turkey started two fronts in Syria, fighting rebels of PKK and intensified constant attacks to military targets in Syria.

Turkey downs two Syrian fighter jets as it intensifies Idlib attacks

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/turkey-destroys-syrian-army-targets-says-defence-minister

Turkey has escalated a widespread offensive against Syrian troops and their allies, shooting down two government planes, wiping out dozens of pieces of military hardware including tanks and radar systems, and stalling a regime momentum that had been rampaging through Idlib province.

The attacks came in response to the killing of at least 33 troops in an airstrike in northern Syria on Thursday night and marked one of the most sustained direct clashes between regional militaries in decades.

The Syrian military had not previously lost more than one jet fighter on a single day throughout the eight-year war, which had been mainly fought through a myriad of proxies. A Turkish F-16 shot both planes down after Turkey lost a drone to Syrian fire. The downing of the jets was acknowledged by both sides and made light of regime claims that it would defend its airspace over the north of the country – a role taken over by Russia in the past four years, whose forces Ankara has avoided over the past three days.

Instead, Turkish drones and artillery pieces have killed at least 106 Syrian soldiers and dozens more allied militiamen, including 14 members of Lebanon’s Hezbollah and at least 21 Afghan and Pakistani Shias who had been sent to Idlib by Iran.

Syrian rebel groups and diplomats in the region say Russia was responsible for the lethal airstrike on Turkish forces, a fact that they say Ankara privately recognises. Turkey’s public wrath, however, has been squarely directed at forces fighting on behalf of Bashar al-Assad, exposing the limitations of a fatigued military and its ageing hardware that has proved little match for Turkey’s modern weaponry.

“We have neither the intention nor the idea to face Russia,” said the Turkish defence minister, Hulusi Akar. “Our only intention there is for the regime to end the massacre and thereby stop radicalisation and migration.”

Russia has been reluctant to defend Syrian interests over the past 72 hours, a posture diplomats suggest is partly aimed at avoiding further inflaming Ankara while also keeping the regime in check. The offensive has mostly grounded both countries’ air forces, delivering welcome respite to the more than 3 million people crammed into Idlib province, many of whom had been barricaded in ruins, or sleeping rough in the face of a ground push and relentless airstrikes.

The Turkish military claims to have killed more than 2,000 Assad-aligned fighters in recent weeks, although observers who monitor casualties across Syria estimate the figure at closer to 150. In addition, dozens of Syrian tanks and armoured carriers, howitzer and mortar positions, eight helicopters and at least three mobile radar positions have been destroyed. Footage from drones, which have been responsible for much of the damage, corroborate some of the Turkish claims.

“The regime has been bombing with impunity,” said Moad Qubeis, a fighter from a coalition of opposition forces in northern Syria. “There are people looking out for us after all, as well as themselves.”

Syrians have been massing at entry points on Turkey’s southern border in the wake of Ankara’s threats to allow refugees to cross its territory and travel to Europe. Restrictions on that happening have been in place since a deal struck with the EU in 2016 after more than 1.5 million Syrians travelled onwards from Turkey, in some cases aided by Turkish authorities.

A bilateral meeting between Moscow and Ankara is scheduled to be held in Moscow on Thursday, in which both sides will aim to patch up a dispute over the fate of Idlib. It is understood that Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, are likely to meet – a move that suggests a binding agreement is in the offing.

Any such pact would likely go a long way towards easing hostilities in Idlib, the last province of Syria to remain completely out of central government control. Addressing the aftermath, however, will require broad international engagement. Syria and Idlib in particular remain ravaged by the devastating war, which has taken a heavier toll on civilians than any other conflict in recent history.

“How would you even start to put this country back together,” said Ardil Mohammed, 48, from Ghouta near Damascus, who has been hiding with his family near the Turkish border. “Everyone around me comes from somewhere else. No one has a home any more. And Bashar has a castle, but not a country.”

Why Turkey launched a major offensive against the Syrian government

Ankara has escalated its response after Syrian regime attacks on Turkish forces in Idlib.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161293/turkey-offensive-idlib-syria

Turkey has launched a military offensive against the Syrian regime in direct retaliation for the killing of about three dozen of its troops last week in Idlib, Syria.

As part of Operation Spring Shield, as the offensive is being called, Turkey has already shot down two Syrian warplanes and killed more than 2,000 Syrian regime troops, according to Turkey’s defense minister, Hulusi Akar. Akar also said Turkey destroyed 103 tanks, 72 artillery and rocket launchers, and three air defense systems.

Turkey escalated its operations in northeastern Syria last week amid the Syrian regime’s push to reclaim the last rebel-held territory in the country, in Idlib province.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, is trying to retake the territory through a brutal military offensive that has, according to United Nations estimates, already displaced about 1 million people since December 1, 2019.

About 3 million people live in Idlib province, and about half of them came from other parts of Syria after being displaced by fighting over the nine-year civil war. Those civilians, many of them women and children, are now being pushed into an ever-shrinking area close to the border with Turkey in dangerous and freezing conditions that are increasing the humanitarian toll.

Turkey, which backs the anti-regime rebels, has sealed its borders to additional refugees. The country already hosts nearly 4 million refugees, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is under increasing domestic pressure to prevent more people from crossing the border.

This has left millions of Syrians essentially trapped in Idlib — unable to find refuge in Turkey and being closed in by Assad who, with Russia’s help, is raining down bombs and recapturing territory.

And now, Turkey and the Syrian regime are directly attacking each other in Idlib, making the crisis even more precarious.

Erdogan had threatened action. Now he’s following through.

Erdoğan had intensified his rhetoric against the Syrian regime as Assad advanced into Idlib, threatening to intervene if Assad did not curtail his offensive. He has also tried to reengage Moscow to revive the outlines of a 2018 ceasefire deal in Idlib that has since imploded.

Then, last week, Syrian regime airstrikes killed at least 36 Turkish soldiers and wounded more than two dozen more in a dangerous escalation between the two sides. The strike put pressure on Erdoğan to respond, and increased the chances of a confrontation between Turkey — a US NATO ally — and Assad’s benefactor, Russia.

Turkey has insisted that its “only aim is to stop the Syrian regime’s massacres” as well as “radical groups [and] the displacement of civilians,” Akar, the Turkish defense minister, said Sunday. He also said Turkey had no “desire or intention to clash with Russia.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Erdoğan have confirmed that they will meet for talks this week, on March 5, to try to find a solution to the crisis in Idlib. This may be a chance for both Ankara and Moscow to pause the fighting and avert some of the humanitarian catastrophe in Idlib. But it will likely only be a temporary fix.

What Turkey really wants — and what it means for Idlib

Syria’s attack on Turkish forces last week drove it to respond with force. But this is less about taking down Assad and more about Erdoğan’s domestic political considerations, experts told me.

In Erdoğan’s view, Turkey cannot take in any more refugees. There has already been a massive backlash against refugees, especially as Turkey’s economy struggles. And Assad’s attacks on Idlib are increasing the chances of mass slaughter and displacement at Turkey’s doorstep, something Turkey absolutely cannot afford.

“Turkey’s capacity is at a breaking point,” Lisel Hintz, assistant professor of international relations and European studies at Johns Hopkins University, told me.

Syria’s attack on Turkish forces gave Erdoğan a rallying point for his domestic audience, who otherwise might not have been eager to commit troops to the fight in Syria. Turkey has also told refugees that its borders with Europe are open, allowing refugees to travel by land or sea to Greece or Bulgaria.

But those European borders remain sealed, with refugees being turned away by force. There have been reports of refugees shot by border guards and groups being dispersed with tear gas.

Ankara is trying to put pressure on both European and NATO allies to come to its aid in Idlib (Turkey is a member of NATO). As part of a deal in 2016, the European Union paid Turkey to stop the flow of migrants into the EU from Turkey after the continent was overwhelmed by asylum seekers fleeing Syria, Iraq, and other places in the Middle East and Africa.

Now Turkey is raising the specter of that crisis again, loosening those restrictions and allowing migrants and refugees to travel to Europe. It’s a pretty blatant attempt to bully NATO forces into backing Turkey in Idlib, Hintz said. “Note this bullying is only possible because, again, the US and European actors largely if incorrectly see Syrians fleeing conflict as a threat.”

It’s not clear how effective this strategy will be, though. NATO has called for an end to the fighting in Idlib but has reiterated its “full solidarity” with Turkey. The United States has publicly come to Turkey’s defense, and there are some signs that the Trump administration may want to do a bit more to back up Turkey.

“The United States is engaging with our Turkish Allies and reviewing options to assist Turkey against this aggression as we seek to prevent further Assad regime and Russian brutality and alleviate the humanitarian suffering in Idlib,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a statement last week.

James Jeffrey, the US Syria envoy, is also reportedly pushing the Pentagon to deploy Patriot surface-to-air missiles to help Turkey fend off Assad’s air force. Jeffrey, along with US Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft, is meeting with Turkish officials Monday, according to pro-Turkish media.

Soner Çağaptay, director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and author of Erdogan’s Empire: Turkey and the Politics of the Middle East, told me he thinks the public support from the United States has already had some impact on Turkey’s calculations.

The US and Turkey have had frosty relations of late, and a big reason has been Erdoğan’s increasingly friendly relations with Putin and recent decision to purchase Russian-made weapons.

But the Syrian crisis is proving to Turkey that Russia may not be as reliable a partner as it would like. “The crisis in Idlib with Putin reminded Turkey that Russia is Turkey’s nemesis, and that even when they have bargains with the Turks, they will ultimately undermine Turkey,” Çağaptay said. On the other hand, “the US did come to Turkey’s assistance.”

Still, Turkey does not want to provoke Russia in this conflict, and Russia doesn’t want to squander its rapprochement with Turkey. That’s likely why Russia has largely stepped aside in this latest fight between Syrian and Turkish forces.

If Putin and Erdoğan can come to some sort of ceasefire or deescalation agreement, Turkey can save some face, and Putin can avoid a dangerous provocation of both Turkey and its NATO allies.

That could spare millions of Syrian people in Idlib from being displaced or killed by immediate fighting — but it may be much harder to find a long-term solution to the crisis.