Murder and Kidnap in Brazil. Again the security is failing, reflex of political scandals.
In the midle of scandals in Brazil related to politics and economy, the society's reflexes are in education and security. This year, the year of Olympic Games we are having serious troubles, like public servers without payment, even the public security personal, teachers and hospitals are without material nor personal able to serve the whole tourism. By the way, narco traffic and small crimes like blitzkrieg kidnaps, specially cellphone robbers are acting normaly, and the lack of personal for security even the low capability of strategy, makes the statistics only growing in numbers.
Again Control Risks did a great work on South America, and with this statistics, I, personaly, comapred the numbers with Forbes 50 most violent cities in the world, that Brazil has 21 of these cities (I don't think failed countries are into, but...). Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo are not in these cities, but the over population makes a number of 100 thousand people being just a fact.
Anyway, Brazil's problem start at the government, the whole stolen money, money given from the private companies to presidential election makes the central bank fail at a moment, the economy is really starve here and unemployment is at a high level and the violence is growing for sure. At the moment of the government crisis, we also have the healthy problem, where the hospitals are full, no material, no money to buy, even no money to pay the licitations, the private companies are feeling this movement and the gerenal concept is grow the whole social problem. Many companies are closing and the ones surviving are firing people.
This same problem reflects in schools, security companies, engireering sectors, but the whole focus of the problem is in the government that, not exagerating, destroyed the whole economy with corruption.
The security problems cannot being taken only to physical security, Brazil has again H1N1 epidemics, Zika Virus and other diseases that are growing, blitzkrieg kidnaps gave oportunity to cellphone assaults, fast and run style, also knife assaults. In some zones the narco traffic dominated and the constant warfare between rival groups to dominate the zones make the whole society stay at a uncertain moment. Despite than narco traffic and police and the lack of capability of combat the illegal activities. Even child prostitution that is focused by many "operators" in times of great events here, like Reveillon, mega events as Carnival, World Cup and maybe Olympics. Prostitution is a common activity here and very searched by foreigners.
A urban asymmetric conflict is done, but carioca's government don't admit that its a civil war. A kind of irregular warfare between civil society, police and guerrilla warfare, the civil society has no rights to obtain weapons in an easy way, but it's the main target of narco traffic and robber's side.
Some zones are simply forgotten by any kind of authority, and it's hard to find a way to observe the whole Rio de Janeiro State (focused on Rio because of the Olympics).
It's hard to think what could happen in the city when nobody is receiving salaries, the whole society is having healthy problems, security and is about to receive athletes and tourits from whole world.
Well, let's check both analysis.
Kidnapping trends worldwide
April 2016
Kidnaps by region in 2015Nicola White - Senior Analyst, Special Risks Analysis, Control RisksRegional distribution of kidnaps has followed a stable pattern over the past few years, with Asia and Latin America consistently leading the pack. There has been just one notable change in the last five years. In 2010, the Middle East accounted for 5% of global kidnaps-for-ransom recorded by Control Risks; in 2015 that number grew to 16%. The increase noted over that period is attributable largely to lingering socio-political and security upheaval in the region.
Syria has become synonymous with kidnapping; the conflict following the Arab Spring led to a sharp rise in incidents. The Syrian civil war also had a knock-on effect on kidnap levels in neighbouring Lebanon. Beyond the northern Levant, Egypt, too, saw a rise in kidnaps-for-ransom, particularly in urban areas.
In Yemen, levels of kidnapping - for decades a method of settling tribal disputes – have remained high in the wake of the September 2014 rise of the Zaidi Shia Houthi movement. The Houthi regime has had some success in limiting the kidnapping capability of Sunni Islamist extremists in areas under its control. This is particularly the case in Sanaa, where al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) targeted the majority of its foreign national victims prior to the Houthi takeover. That said, the Houthis own use of the tactic, largely to control dissent and exert authority, added a third layer of complexity to the already high kidnap threat posed by tribes and terrorists.
Local vs foreign nationalsRegardless of region, local nationals were 30 times more likely to fall victim to kidnappers in 2015 than expatriates or short term visitors, according to Control Risks’ records. In general, kidnappers are motivated by money, so it would be rational for them to target high-income individuals to maximise the ransom from each kidnap. However, those individuals are often difficult targets because their security measures act as a deterrent and their high-profile disappearance would increase the risk of arrest. In fact, those from low- to middle-income families were most often the focal point for targeting. The victim’s employment sector alone appeared to have little bearing on a kidnapper’s initial targeting decision. Instead they evaluated individuals based on their perceived ability to pay a ransom, however big or small, and the ease with which they could successfully abduct them.
The odds of a foreign national being targeted were probably even lower than 30:1, as the vast majority of cases involving local nationals are never reported. In some jurisdictions, the pervasiveness of kidnapping means the stories of kidnapped locals are no longer considered newsworthy. Conversely, any incident involving a foreign national, and especially an incident perpetrated by Islamist extremists, is automatically newsworthy due to its rarity. As a result, the majority of incidents involving foreigners were reported unless a media embargo prevented it.
Outsize publicity aside, incidents involving foreign nationals were rare, in part because the most basic of security measures effectively deter all but the most experienced, determined and well-resourced assailants. Even more capable groups will often realise that a kidnap of a foreign national could provoke increased scrutiny from security forces and increase their risk of arrest. That risk would potentially outweigh the potential gain from obtaining a larger ransom payment.
In Latin America, kidnappers skirted this problem by increasingly targeting foreign nationals for express or virtual kidnaps, thus reducing the duration of captivity and the associated risk of arrest.
Perpetrator typesKidnaps by Islamist extremist groups attract the most attention, often by design. The widespread media coverage these rare kidnaps receive and the powerful emotions that accompanying online images evoke have begun to influence the public perception that kidnapping-for-ransom is largely linked to terrorism.
The statistics speak otherwise. Although the proportion of abductions attributed to Islamist extremist groups has increased from 1% of global kidnaps in 2010 to 6% in 2015, the absolute numbers of terrorist-related incidents remain low in the global kidnapping context.
Other groups account for most of the activity in this respect. Guerrillas, leftists and separatists also use kidnapping to further their local political agendas. The use of kidnap forms part of their overall strategy to draw attention to and raise funding for their causes.
Companies are statistically more likely to encounter criminal kidnap-for-ransom of an employee than any other kind. Financially-motivated criminals dominated global kidnapping trends in 2015, accounting for 80% of all recorded incidents. For them, kidnapping-for-ransom is a business with a singular goal: to engage in a high-volume of increasingly quick-turnaround kidnaps that yield a steady stream of lower, albeit more frequent, financial concessions.
Abduction methodologiesOver 50% of abductions recorded in 2015 took place while the victim was in transit. In many cases, armed kidnappers will provoke a road traffic accident to force the victim’s vehicle to stop before abducting them.
A victim in transit presents an attractive option. The initial attack and subsequent egress with the victim are far easier to execute than complex abductions that must first overcome more fortified security infrastructure. Where incidents in 2015 occurred at a home or workplace, the vast majority were soft targets. Few kidnappers had the capability to breach the secure perimeters of compounds or worksites. Where isolated incidents of this nature occurred, often the perpetrators had assistance from an insider.
Kidnap durationsModern technology provides inexpensive, easy access to comparatively sophisticated tools for kidnappers to pursue the high-volume, fast turnaround kidnap-for-ransom model. No longer reliant on slower, traditional methods of communication, kidnappers can now apply intense pressure and force ransom payments by telephoning or instant messaging the victim’s family or employer multiple times an hour. As a result, the majority of incidents in 2015 were resolved in under seven days with the safe release of the victim.
In a few cases, durations can be far greater; a Canadian tourist was released from Afghanistan in 2015 after five years in captivity. Long-lasting kidnaps place immense strain on the victim, their loved ones and those who have a duty of care to secure their release. In ungoverned spaces, the kidnappers, usually Islamist extremists or other ideologically-motivated armed groups, can hold victims indefinitely. They communicate their demands sparingly to avoid leaving a communication trail for law enforcement, intelligence and military personnel to follow. And, after months or years in captivity, the victim’s safe release is not guaranteed. Apart from the risk of being killed in order to further a political agenda, crisis duration and fatality through injury or illness are directly proportional.
Looking aheadIn 2015, political and economic upheaval, basic socio-economic conditions and a breakdown in law and order all drove the spread and persistence of kidnapping-for-ransom across the globe. In some cases, the mixture included local insurgency and/or the threat of terrorism. There are no indications that these factors will recede in 2016. There are no simple solutions to any of these complex issues and, as a result, kidnapping will continue to pose a security threat to employees around the globe.
So, Forbes did this amazing analysis. Check it below:
If Latin America holds 29%, I can Imagine Brazil maybe has the most of these numbers, but it's not in biggest cities, like Rio, São Paulo, Curitiba or Belo Horizonte, it's more in interior cities. And also, the guerrilla here don't act for kidnap, requesting any political interest, that's why we have blitzkrieg kidnaps, in general asking for money and bank passwords and liberating minutes of hours later.
Except for passionate crimes, that is growing yearly, by the lo capability of the law and benefits of pathlogical agent that caused the act of kidnap (seems bizarre, but it's true).
Before talk about Forbes, the last year's article on The Star, said about Brazil:
(...)
“The Brazilians don’t have crime under control yet,” said Susan Purcell, director of the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami. “One assessment is that underdeveloped countries have underdeveloped institutions.”
And, despite a recent economic boom, Brazil is an underdeveloped country.
(...)
“The worst that I’ve experienced,” declared John Coates, vice-president of the IOC.
Coates was referring to preparations in general, including the construction or renovation of sporting and other facilities, but many Brazil watchers worry especially about Rio’s unnerving crime rate, which the U.S. State Department has assessed as “critical” in each of the past 25 years.That’s the bad news. The good news is that murders are down — or, at least, they were.Between 2005 and 2012, the homicide rate in the city and its surrounding area tumbled almost by half — from 42 homicides per year for every 100,000 population to just 24.That figure puts Rio about midway between Toronto (with an annual murder rate of 1.34 for every 100,000 population) and Detroit (47).“There has been a massive and rapid expansion of the police force,” said Robert Gay, a sociologist and Brazil expert at Connecticut College in New London, Conn. “They’ve reduced murders dramatically.”Unfortunately, the most recent stats indicate more than a little backsliding on the crime front.Muggings, for example, were way up last year, reaching levels not seen since the dark days that reigned before Rio launched a major crime-reduction program in 2008. Other felonies, such as car theft and homicide, are also back on the rise.“Brazil is worse than people think,” said Purcell.She was referring to the country as a whole, and on that score she appears to be right, at least according to the findings of a Mexican agency called the Citizens’ Council for Public Security and Criminal Justice, which produces an annual ranking of the world’s most murderous cities not located in war zones.Last year, Brazil led the way, claiming 16 spots among the planet’s 50 bloodiest towns, more than any other country. Mexico was second, with nine.On the plus side, Rio de Janeiro did not make the list. (Detroit, however, did — at Number 24. Meanwhile, Honduras’ second city, San Pedro Sula, was ranked the world’s most murderous town for the second year in a row. Caracas was second.)Rio’s reduced murder rate is due at least in part to an innovative crime-fighting strategy introduced six years ago, replacing the shock-troop approach that had prevailed for decades.According to Gay, the old system involved three brutal and not very effective steps: “Go into a favela,” he said, using the Brazilian term for slum, “kill as many people as you can, and pull out. In military circles, it’s called ‘mowing the lawn.’”Since 2008, however, police in Rio have been trying a different approach. So-called Police Pacification Units — or UPPs, the Portuguese abbreviation — now maintain a round-the-clock presence in the poorest and most crime-ridden of Rio’s innumerable slums.“The war model had failed,” said Gay. “‘Let’s try a new model.’”Of course, high crime rates have been a carioca bugbear for a good long time, and yet they have not prevented the city from staging its world famous Carnaval, year in, year out.“Brazil is used to putting on these mega-events,” said Gay.Foremost among such events was last year’s soccer World Cup, which was played in a dozen Brazilian cities, including Rio. Despite acute concerns about security, the sporting extravaganza was a huge success (if you don’t count the disappointing on-field fortunes of the Brazilian team).“It was one of the best World Cups ever,” said Gay, who predicts the Rio Olympics will go off smoothly in the end.As for British sailors Mills and Clark, the threat of robbery may not be the worst hazard they will face.Consider the contaminated waters of Guanabara Bay.(...)
Check the great analysis did by Forbes and Business Insider, about the most violent cities:
Latin America holds the undesirable distinction of having the most cities on the Mexico Citizens Council for Public Security's annual ranking of the world's most violent cities.
Of the 50 cities on the list, 41 are in Latin America, including 21 in Brazil.
"Narcotics are the biggest black market earner of all. Estimated to be worth more than three hundred billion dollars a year, the global industry has pumped huge resources into criminal empires decade after decade," wrote Ioan Grillo the author of "Gangster Warlords: Drug Dollars, Killing Fields, and the New Politics of Latin America."
http://www.businessinsider.com/violent-cities-in-world-2016-4
Brazil just cannot — cannot — get a break. If it’s not their Banana Republic-esquepoliticians and oligarchs, commodity deflation, inflation and pesky mosquitoes spreading the zica virus to the world, its violent crime. A new report out this month has Brazilian cities dominating a list of the 50 murder capitals of the world.
The report by Mexico City based Center for Public Security And Criminal Justice shows clearly that no country in the world has more cities plagued by violent crime than Brazil. It could be because the country is so large. But then again, the U.S. is just as big and has just four cities on the list, including some like St. Louis that are more violent than Rio de Janeiro in terms of homicide rates. Mexico, the second largest country in Latin America, has five cities on the list, down from last year’s 12.
But when it comes to mortal gunshot wounds, Brazil takes the cake. Out of the 50 cities with high per capita homicide rates, the “country of the future”, where God is a registered voter, according to local lore, has a whopping 22 cities on the list. Even clean-and-green Curitiba and homogenous Porto Alegre are on it.
The zica virus may very well go the way of SARS and other diseases the World Health Organization warns are heading for run-for-your-life pandemics, violent crime in Brazil will be harder to eradicate. It won’t go away with pesticides and booster shots. Reducing the homicide rate requires a better police force, stronger land rights, a stronger public health system equipped to deal with drug addiction, and a better economy in the much poorer northern states. Seeing how most Brazil economists are forecasting the country to get marginally worse this year, rising unemployment and sinking incomes also put Brazilian crime fighters in the spot light.
Within the top 50, Brazil’s most violent cities are mainly in the north, far from the Olympic city of Rio de Janeiro.
City 2015 Murders Homicide rate per 100,000
Fortaleza 2,422 60.77
Natal 921 60.66
Salvador 1,996 60.63
João Pessoa 643 58.4Maceio 564 55.63São Luis 802 53.05Cuiabá 412 48.52Manaus 985 47.87Belém 1,101 45.83Feira de Santana 281 45.5Goiânia 847 43.38Teresina 360 42.64Vitoria 802 41.99Vitoria da Conquista 132 38.46Recife 1,492 38.12Aracaju 349 37.70Campos dos Goytacazes 175 36.16Campina Grande 146 36.04Porto Alegre 1,479 34.73Curitiba 1,121 34.71Macapá 138 30.25
Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro did not make the list. The Center’s president, José Antonio Ortega, said Sao Paulo’s homicide rate was a low 9.8 per 100,000, which makes it like New York City and Rio was 18.6, which makes it better than Compton.
Northern states and center-west farming states in Brazil also have property disputes and vigilante justice that lead to higher homicide rates than in São Paulo and Rio.
The Center for Public Security’s report did not give reasons for the Brazilian crime spree last year.
As the Olympics come to town in August, most foreigners in attendance will already have two popular perceptions of Rio. First, that it is a 24-hours a day Carnaval party. And second, that it is dangerous. The fact that Brazil tops the list of murderous countries is an embarrassment. But that Rio and Sao Paulo didn’t make the cut suggest, at the very least, that even in trying times Brazil has the institutional ability to put a lid on crime in its two most important urban centers.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2016/01/29/months-before-rio-olympics-murder-rate-rises-in-brazil/#56cf4ffb1a0b
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